K-12 Student Threat Detection Prior to a Mass Shooting

By Robert Jordan

K-12 Student Threat Detection Before a Mass Shooting. SITE|SAFETYNET℠ identifies school shootings as a serious concern for educators, administrators, parents, and communities. Although relatively rare, these events can have devastating consequences. In recent years, there has been an increasing emphasis on identifying and assessing students who may pose a threat of violence to prevent these tragedies from occurring. Critically, research has shown that school shootings are preventable if warning signs are recognized and reported¹. This report examines the behavioral indicators that students may exhibit before a mass shooting, the typical characteristics of students who have committed mass shootings, and how schools can identify, assess, and manage students who may pose a threat.

Behavioral Indicators of Potential School Shooters

Students who are planning a school shooting often exhibit observable behaviors that indicate they may be on a pathway to violence. While not always indicative of an impending attack, these behaviors should be taken seriously and investigated further. The FBI’s research has identified several concerning behaviors that, when combined with other-regarding behaviors, may indicate a person is moving towards violence². Some common concerning behaviors include:

• Sudden changes in behavior or personality: This can include withdrawing from friends and family, a decline in academic performance, increased irritability or anger, and a loss of interest in previously enjoyed activities. For example, a student who was once outgoing and engaged in class may suddenly become withdrawn and isolated, or a student who consistently earned good grades may start failing classes¹.
• Social isolation: Socially isolated Students may feel like they don’t belong and may be more likely to engage in violence. This isolation can be self-imposed, or it can be the result of bullying or social rejection by peers. A student who spends most of their time alone avoids social interactions and has few or no friends may be at higher risk⁴.
• Bullying or victimization: Students who are bullied or who have been victims of violence may be more likely to become violent themselves. Bullying can take many forms, including physical, verbal, and emotional abuse. Students repeatedly targeted by bullies may develop anger, resentment, and a desire for revenge¹.
• Excessive irritability, lack of patience, or quickly becoming angry can be signs of a student struggling to cope with stress or other problems. A student who frequently lashes out at others has difficulty controlling their temper or overreacts to minor situations and may be experiencing emotional distress².
• Expressing persistent thoughts of harming themselves or someone else: This can include making direct threats, writing about violence, or expressing a desire to hurt others. For example, a student may write a story or poem about violence, draw disturbing images, or make comments about wanting to harm specific individuals or groups of people².
• Making direct threats toward a place, another person, or themselves: This should always be taken seriously and reported to authorities immediately. Direct threats can be verbal, written, or communicated through social media. Any danger that intends to harm oneself or others should be thoroughly investigated³.
• Bragging about access to guns or weapons: This can be a sign that a student is considering using a gun to harm others. Students may brag about having access to firearms at home, show off weapons to their peers, or talk about using weapons to harm others³.
• Obsession with online violent content, mass shooters, or weapons: This can indicate an unhealthy fascination with violence and may desensitize a student to the consequences of their actions. Students may spend excessive amounts of time-consuming violent media, researching past school shootings, or engaging in online communities that glorify violence².
• Cruelty to animals: This can be a sign of a lack of empathy and a disregard for the suffering of others. Students who engage in cruelty to animals may harm animals for entertainment, express a lack of remorse for their actions, or show an indifference to animal suffering³.

It is important to note that these behaviors do not always indicate an impending attack. However, when several warning signs accumulate over time, it can mean that someone is on a pathway toward violence⁷. The FBI has researched “mobilization indicators,” which are behaviors that suggest an individual is actively planning and preparing to commit an act of violence. These indicators can include acquiring weapons, conducting surveillance of a target, and communicating their plans to others².

Characteristics of Students Who Have Committed Mass Shootings

While there is no single profile of a school shooter, research has identified some common characteristics among students who have committed mass shootings. It is important to note that different types of mass shootings (e.g., school shootings, workplace shootings, attacks on houses of worship) have distinct profiles⁸. This report focuses specifically on K-12 school shootings. Some common characteristics of school shooters include:

• Gender: The vast majority of school shooters are male⁸.
• Race: Most school shooters are white⁸.
• Social isolation: Many school shooters are socially isolated and have difficulty forming relationships with others. They may be withdrawn, have few friends, and feel they don’t belong⁹.
• History of trauma: Many school shooters have experienced trauma, such as abuse, neglect, or bullying. These experiences can have a profound impact on a student’s mental health and well-being and may increase their risk of engaging in violence⁸.
• Mental health concerns: Some school shooters have a history of mental health concerns, such as depression, anxiety, or psychosis. However, it is essential to note that the vast majority of people with mental health concerns do not engage in violence. Mental health concerns should be considered one of many factors in threat assessment, but they should not be used to stereotype or profile students¹⁰.
• Fascination with violence: Many school shooters have an unhealthy interest in violence, including previous school shootings, weapons, and violent media. They may idolize past school shooters, collect weapons, or spend excessive amounts of time-consuming violent content¹¹.
• Access to firearms: Most school shooters have access to weapons, often from their own homes. This highlights the importance of secure firearm storage in preventing school shootings⁹.
• Motives: School shooters often have multiple motives for their attacks. Common motives include grievances with classmates, school staff, or romantic partners. Other motives can consist of a desire to kill, suicide, and seeking fame or notoriety¹⁴.

It is important to reiterate that there is no accurate profile of a school shooter¹⁹. These characteristics should not be used to stereotype or profile students. However, they can help identify students who may be at risk and need support.

Identifying and Assessing Students Who May Pose a Threat

Schools can take a proactive approach to identifying and assessing students who may pose a threat of violence. This includes:

• Establishing a multidisciplinary threat assessment team: This team should include representatives from school administration, mental health (such as counselors, psychologists, and social workers), and law enforcement. The team should also include school staff with strong connections with the student in question, such as teachers, coaches, or club advisors²⁰.
• Defining prohibited and concerning behaviors: Schools should have straightforward policies that define prohibited behaviors (e.g., bringing weapons to school, making direct threats) and those that are concerning but may not indicate violence (e.g., social withdrawal, sudden changes in behavior)²⁰.
• Creating a central reporting mechanism: Schools should establish a system for students, staff, and community members to report concerning behaviors. This could include a tip line, an online form, or a designated email address²⁰.
• Determining the threshold for law enforcement intervention: Most threats can be handled by school personnel, but schools should have clear procedures for involving law enforcement when necessary²⁰.
• Establishing threat assessment procedures: Teams should have clear procedures for conducting threat assessments, including gathering information, assessing risk, and developing intervention strategies. These procedures should follow legal and ethical guidelines and protect student privacy rights²⁰.
• Training staff: All school personnel should be trained to recognize warning signs and how to report concerns. Training should also cover the school’s threat assessment procedures and maintaining confidentiality²⁷.
• Creating a positive school climate: A positive school climate can help reduce the risk of violence by fostering a sense of belonging and connectedness among students. This can be achieved through initiatives that promote inclusivity, respect, and positive relationships⁷.
• Monitoring online activity: Schools should monitor student online activity for potential threats while also being mindful of student privacy rights and legal considerations. This can include monitoring social media posts, online forums, and other platforms concerning behavior or communications²⁹.
• Understanding the pathway to violence: School personnel should be trained to recognize the four stages in the path to violence: ideation, planning, preparation, and implementation³⁰. This understanding can help schools intervene earlier and prevent violence from occurring.
• Assessing the seriousness of threats: Schools should distinguish between students who make threats and those who pose a threat²⁶. This requires a thorough threat assessment process that considers the context of the danger, the student’s intent, and their access to weapons.
• Understanding different types of threats: Schools should be aware of the different kinds of threats (direct, indirect, veiled, conditional) and how to assess their seriousness²⁵.

 

Threat Type	Description	Example	Response
Direct	Specific act against a specific target	“I’m going to shoot up the school tomorrow.”	Immediate intervention: contact law enforcement
Indirect	Vague, unclear, and ambiguous	“Someone should do something about this school.”	Gather more information, assess risk
Veiled	Strongly implies but does not explicitly threaten violence	“This school will pay for what they did to me.”	Investigate further, assess risk
Conditional	Threat contingent on specific demands	“If I don’t get an A in this class, I will blow up the school.”	Take the threat seriously, assess risk, and address the student’s demands

The Role of Mental Health Professionals

Mental health professionals play a critical role in identifying and assessing student threats. They can provide expertise in:

• Assessing students’ mental health needs: Mental health professionals can conduct assessments to determine whether a student is experiencing mental health concerns that may increase their risk of violence. This can include assessing for depression, anxiety, trauma, and other mental health conditions³¹.
• Providing counseling and support: Mental health professionals can provide counseling and support to students who are struggling with mental health concerns or who have experienced trauma. This can include individual therapy, group therapy, and crisis intervention³¹.
• Developing intervention strategies: Mental health professionals can work with the threat assessment team to develop intervention strategies that address the underlying causes of a student’s concerning behavior. This can include developing individualized plans that address the student’s mental health needs, social skills deficits, and academic challenges²².
• Educating staff and students: Mental health professionals can train staff and students on mental health awareness, warning signs, and reporting concerns. This can help create a more supportive and informed school environment³².
• Connecting students to community resources: Mental health professionals can help connect students and families to community resources, such as mental health clinics, support groups, and social services. School-based health centers can play a crucial role in this process by providing integrated mental health services and facilitating referrals to community providers³³.

Legal and Ethical Considerations

Schools must be mindful of legal and ethical considerations when conducting threat assessments. These include:

Student Privacy

Schools must protect students’ privacy rights when collecting and sharing information. This includes complying with the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA), which protects the confidentiality of student education records. Schools should have clear policies and procedures for collecting, storing, and sharing student information, and they should ensure that all staff members are trained on these policies³⁴.

Due Process

Students have the right to due process when facing disciplinary action. This means that schools must notify students of the charges against them, an opportunity to be heard, and a fair and impartial decision-making process. Schools should ensure that their threat assessment procedures are consistent with due process requirements and that students are not punished without a fair hearing³⁸.

Discrimination

Schools must ensure that threat assessments are not used to discriminate against students based on race, ethnicity, gender, or disability. Threat assessment procedures should be applied fairly and equitably to all students, and schools should monitor for any potential disparities in implementing these procedures. Notably, research has shown that threat assessment can reduce racial disparities in school discipline²³.

Confidentiality

Mental health professionals must maintain confidentiality when working with students. This means that they cannot disclose information about a student’s mental health or treatment without the student’s consent, except in limited circumstances where there is a risk of harm to the student or others. Schools should have clear policies and procedures for maintaining confidentiality and ensure that all mental health professionals are trained on these policies⁴¹.

Policy and Legislation

In addition to school-based interventions, policy, and legislation can play a crucial role in preventing school shootings. This includes:

• Child Access Prevention (CAP) laws: These laws promote responsible firearm storage practices and hold gun owners accountable for failing to take measures to prevent children from accessing firearms. Research has shown that CAP laws can reduce firearm deaths and injuries among children and teens⁴².
• Minimum age laws: These laws make it illegal for young people under a certain age to purchase or possess firearms. Raising the minimum age to buy firearms can help prevent youth access to weapons and reduce the risk of school shootings⁴³.

Impact of School Shootings

School shootings can have a devastating impact on the mental health of students and staff. Research has shown that students who experience a school shooting may experience a range of mental health consequences, including anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and increased use of psychotropic medications¹⁵. Schools should provide mental health support to students and staff following a shooting and should create a supportive and trauma-informed environment to facilitate healing and recovery.

Balancing Safety with Student Rights

Schools must balance the need for safety with the rights of students. This includes:

• Avoiding overreaction: Schools should not overreact to every concerning behavior. Many students make threats that are not serious, and overreaction can lead to unnecessary disciplinary action and stigmatization²³.
• Providing support: Schools should provide support to students who are struggling with mental health concerns or who have experienced trauma. This can include providing access to mental health services, creating a supportive school environment, and connecting students to community resources⁴⁴.
• Creating a culture of trust: Schools should develop a culture where students feel comfortable reporting concerns without fear of punishment. This can be achieved through open communication, clear policies and procedures, and a commitment to fairness and equity⁴⁵.

Conclusion

Schools can take a proactive approach to identifying and assessing students who may pose a threat of violence. By establishing threat assessment teams, training staff, creating a positive school climate, and implementing appropriate policies and procedures, schools can help prevent tragedies while also protecting students’ rights. Mental health professionals play a critical role in this process by providing expertise in assessment, intervention, and education. Schools must be mindful of legal and ethical considerations when conducting threat assessments and should strive to balance the need for safety with the rights of students.

School administrators and educators are encouraged to implement the recommendations outlined in this report to create safer and more supportive learning environments for all students. By working together, we can prevent school shootings and ensure that all students have the opportunity to thrive.

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